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La hausse des taux d’intérêts mise en œuvre par les banques centrales pour lutter contre l’inflation crée, depuis le 2ème semestre 2022, des tensions sur le secteur immobilier.

Ces tensions ont entrainé une baisse quasi généralisée des prix de l’immobilier et un certain attentisme de la part des différents acteurs de marchés qui attendent d’avoir plus de visibilité sur l’évolution des taux d’intérêts pour relancer leurs projets d’investissements.

Cette situation s’est traduite par une baisse significative des volumes de transactions (qui n’a épargné aucun segment de marché) et par un ajustement de prix sur certains supports d’investissement comme les SCPI notamment.

Si cette actualité amène des questions, il nous paraît important de prendre du recul pour en analyser l’impact sur vos placements et déterminer la position à tenir pour les prochains mois.

En préambule, gardons à l’esprit que l’investissement immobilier s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une détention à long terme et que nous avons connu ces dernières années un cycle de hausse des prix lié au caractère défensif de l’immobilier et à la faiblesse des taux d’intérêt qui rendait leur rendement particulièrement attractif.

Cette situation, renforcée par des politiques monétaires très accommodantes (politique de taux bas) maintenue durant la période post-covid s’est brutalement inversée en 2022 lorsque l’inflation est apparue plus forte et plus durable qu’anticipée, renforcée par le conflit Ukrainien, et que les banquiers centraux ont été contraints de relever massivement leurs taux d’intérêts pour juguler l’inflation.

 

Face à cette situation, plusieurs questions se posent :

 

Quel est lien entre la hausse des taux d’intérêts et la baisse des prix de l’immobilier ?

Les hausses de taux, dans les proportions que nous venons de connaitre (plus de 4% en 18 mois) ont à court terme un effet direct sur l’attractivité du rendement des actifs immobiliers. Ces actifs étant par nature plus contraints que les produits de taux (obligations), les investisseurs exigent un rendement supérieur pour les acquérir. Ainsi, lorsque les taux montent (même temporairement), le prix des actifs immobiliers doit s’ajuster pour leur permettre de conserver un rendement attractif.

Autre élément important, dans un secteur où l’investissement se finance très largement à crédit, la hausse rapide et continue des taux d’intérêts à tendance à réduire les volumes d’investissement. Aussi, en l’absence de volumes de transaction significatifs, il devient difficile « de mettre un prix sur les actifs »  et les prix de référence baissent faute d’acheteurs sur le marché. C’est le fameux jeu de l’offre et de la demande…

 

Les baisses de prix concernent-elles tous les segments de marché ?

Si l’on a tendance à parler de baisse généralisée des prix de l’immobilier, certains segments de marché se montrent plus résilients que d’autres. C’est notamment le cas des actifs immobiliers dits alternatifs comme la Santé, l’hôtellerie, le Résidentiel, et dans moindre mesure la logistique. Secteurs pour lesquels les besoins en infrastructure sont grandissant.

A contrario, l’immobilier d’investissement plus traditionnel et particulièrement les actifs de bureaux, souffrent davantage. Mais là encore, les baisses ne sont pas homogènes sur toutes les zones géographiques et sur tous les types de surfaces.  Les grandes surfaces de bureaux en région Parisienne connaissent des baisses marquées quand les investissements en région sur lesquels les transactions se traitent sur des niveaux de prix plus faibles, et qui dépendent moins de financements bancaires, résistent mieux.

 

Quel est notre état des lieux ?

Globalement, la diversification mise en œuvre au travers de nos recommandations sur des SCPI diversifiées et/ou thématiques (Sofidy Europe Invest, Corum XL, Pierval Santé,..) vous a permis de bénéficier d’une certaine résilience sur vos investissements SCPI. Les thématiques comme la Santé, l’Hôtellerie, ou le Résidentiel  ont subi des baisses contenues qui ont permis aux Sociétés de Gestion de maintenir des prix de parts inchangés.

Sur l’ensemble de notre sélection, peu de SCPI connaissent à ce stade des baisses de prix de parts. Les véhicules les plus affectés sont des SCPI qui disposent de patrimoines souvent de qualité mais encore trop exposés aux actifs traditionnels comme le bureau parisien. Actifs jugés autrefois défensifs mais aujourd’hui mis à mal par la baisse des transactions et par des rendements souvent dans la fourchette basse du marché.

Nous constatons également que certains gestionnaires souffrent plus que d’autres, souvent du fait d’une vision trop « traditionnelle » de la gestion : l’asset management immobilier doit aujourd’hui se montrer actif et innovant dans la construction de son patrimoine, doit savoir arbitrer ses actifs, et diversifier ses portefeuilles.

 

Baisse des valorisations : risque ou opportunité ?

Si l’on considère l’investissement immobilier et notamment la SCPI comme un actif de rendement, la baisse des valorisations et/ou du prix de part n’aura pas d’effet à court/moyen terme sur son 1er objectif : distribuer un revenu stable et régulier (sans aucun souci de gestion).

Même en période de tension sur les prix, les baux en cours permettent aux gestionnaires d’assurer la pérennité de l’encaissement des loyers. De ce point de vue, les critères les plus importants restent le taux de vacance qui traduit la bonne gestion de la SCPI et l’attractivité (potentiel locatif) des immeubles en portefeuille, ainsi que l’indexation des loyers qui aura tendance à augmenter en période de forte inflation.

A plus long terme, si le patrimoine est de qualité et que la SCPI dispose d’un bon positionnement, les baisses de valorisation peuvent représenter une opportunité d’investissement :

  • La baisse des valorisations permet aux gestionnaires qui bénéficient de niveau de collecte important de saisir l’opportunité d’acheter des immeubles qui présentent des niveaux de décote parfois important, et de bénéficier à la fois de rendement et d’un potentiel de revalorisation à terme plus important.

Les SCPI réalisant par ailleurs la majorité de leurs investissements sans recours au crédit, elles sont moins contraintes par le niveau actuel des taux d’intérêts et bénéficient d’un pouvoir de négociation important sur leurs nouvelles acquisitions.

  • Si elles ne pénalisent pas les anciens associés quant au rendement distribué, les baisses de valeurs de parts offrent par ailleurs aux nouveaux entrant l’opportunité de bénéficier de rendements plus importants sur leurs investissements : il est nécessaire d’immobiliser moins de capital pour bénéficier d’une distribution équivalente.

 

Quelles recommandations face à cette tension sur les prix et à la baisse des prix de parts de certaines SCPI ?

Pour les porteurs de parts qui sont confrontés à des baisses de prix, il nous parait important (sauf cas exceptionnel) de ne pas sortir de ces investissements. Les baisses pratiquées par les sociétés de gestion étant liées à la cyclicité de l’investissement immobilier et au contexte de hausse des taux d’intérêts, elles devraient être compensées à moyen terme par la hausse des rendements des actifs (indexation des loyers) et par la normalisation des taux d’intérêts.

Certains véhicules, qui ont déjà initié depuis plusieurs année une diversification sur des actifs alternatifs et qui subissent aujourd’hui des baisses modérés de leur valorisation peuvent même selon nous représenter une opportunité d’investissement.

D’autres SCPI, qui n’ont pas connu d’ajustement de prix et qui disposent de patrimoines diversifiés et/ou orientés vers des actifs alternatifs offrent également une réelle opportunité d’investissement : la collecte importante réalisée sur ces derniers mois devrait leur permettre de saisir des opportunités dans un marché affecté par un manque de liquidité, et d’accroitre leur niveau de rendement à moyen/long terme.

 

Nous attirons votre attention sur le fait que cette approche de marché doit être analysée au cas par cas.

Si la « Pierre Papier » nous semble être une classe d’actif pertinente, l’investissement SCPI doit répondre à une stratégie patrimoniale et s’intégrer dans une allocation globale.

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